Overall, no. In one specific area, there’s serious cause for concern.
This is part of Vital City’s ongoing series dissecting the data on matters of public controversy, especially in the realm of public safety. Read previous installments about the National Guard and cities, NYPD staffing levels and crime levels in Manhattan and Brooklyn.
In April 2017, New York passed “Raise the Age,” a law designed to stop automatically prosecuting 16- and 17-year-olds as adults, making it the last state in the nation to raise the age of criminal responsibility over the age of 16. The law, phased in over two years, aimed to move teenagers out of adult jails and into facilities focused on rehabilitation. While critics frequently argue that Raise the Age precipitated a spike in youth crime, the data — with one significant caveat — generally does not support this claim.
Under the new system, 16- and 17-year-olds charged with misdemeanor offenses (other than traffic violations) are now classified as Juvenile Delinquents (JDs). Their cases are heard in Family Court, where proceedings are confidential. While they cannot be sent to adult jail or prison, they may still face placement in youth facilities.
Those in the same age group charged with felonies fall into a new category called Adolescent Offenders (AOs). These cases begin in the Youth Part of the state Supreme Court, a newly created court part designed to adjudicate these types of cases, rather than in Family Court. However, more than 80% of these felony cases are eventually transferred to Family Court. Once transferred, the youth is treated as a Juvenile Delinquent rather than an adult criminal.
Thirteen- to 15-year-olds accused of serious or violent felonies are classified Juvenile Offenders (JOs), a category that also existed before the passage of RTA. They are also tried in the Youth Part of the Supreme Court. While they receive lighter sentences than adults, they can still end up with a permanent criminal record unless a judge grants them a special status or transfers the case to Family Court.
Youth crime trends before and after the reforms
Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch has called for reforms to the law. “When the age of criminal responsibility went up, the age of criminal suspects went down,” she said in June, adding: “Seriously bad things come from a consequence-free environment, and right now juveniles who commit crimes in New York City are living in a virtually consequence-free environment.”
Tisch is incorrect that the age of criminal suspects is declining. There is one serious area of concern: more youth are carrying illegal weapons and shooting those weapons. But that is a small fraction of criminal behavior in which young people are involved. Overall, the post-Raise the Age picture is one of declining youth crime as a percentage of overall crime.
This week, the Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice issued a report on “NYC Youth Crime in Context,” concluding that “in 2024, the youth share of citywide felony and violent felony arrests was the same as it was in 2018,” and that “a small proportion of youth felony arrests (~5%) are for the most serious violent felony crimes, where 16-17s have seen an uptick as a share of citywide crime, mostly in the past year.” Further, it states: “Youth recidivism rates for all felony, violent, and serious violent offenses are stable or decreasing. Most youth are reoffending at or below 2018 levels.”
Vital City’s data analysis provides additional context and insight.
To begin, there is no evidence to date that the overall proportion of crime committed by youth — either property crime or violent crime — has risen in the wake of Raise the Age. In fact, as a percentage of crime, youth crime is lower today than it was in 2017, before RTA was implemented.
Prior to RTA, the percentage of all crimes (the combined tally of felonies, misdemeanors and violations) committed by youth was already trending down. Since the passage of the law, the percentage of crime by youth is down further. The share of crimes committed by youth ticked upward in 2021, but the rate today remains below what it was before the law took effect.
Looking specifically at felonies, the percentage committed by youth is also down. The percentages rose modestly in 2021 — but remain below pre-RTA levels.
What about the seven major felony offenses that are often used as bellwethers of crime in New York (murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny and grand larceny auto)? Before passage of RTA, the percentage of these crimes committed by youth was trending down. Since the law’s passage, the percentage of major felony crimes committed by youth has continued declining. The share of seven major felony offenses committed by youth increased after 2021, but it too remains below what it was before the law took effect.
Violent felony offenses show the same pattern.
Some critics of RTA argue that, in absolute numbers, total youth crime is up when compared to 2017. This is true — but lacks crucial context.
In New York City, felony offenses by people under the age of 18 have risen 13% over the pre-RTA period, and seven major felony offenses have increased 19%. In contrast over the same period, overall incidence of felony offenses has increased by 32%, and the seven major felony offenses have increased by 26%. Youth are a shrinking share of the serious crime problem.
Furthermore, Raise the Age applies across the state, and youth crime rates in other parts of New York are trending downward even in absolute terms; New York City is an exception to the rule.
Similarly, youth felony re-arrests — defined as a new arrest within one year of the original arrest — have stayed flat from 2018 to 2024, while adult re-arrests, particularly those 25 and older, have increased. The data just released from the Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice shows that the rearrest rate for people under 18 years old charged with a felony was unchanged, from 33% in 2018 to 32% in 2024. The rate was also unchanged for people 18 to 24 years old, from 30% in 2018 to 30% in 2024. Meanwhile, it increased for people over 25 years old, from 24% in 2018 to 32% in 2024.
The same trend applies to rearrests for people arrested for an initial violent felony offense. The rearrest rate for people under 18 years old went from 33% in 2018 to 32% in 2024 and from 25% in 2018 to 26% in 2024 — while it increased significantly for people over 25 years of age from 18% in 2018 to 24% in 2024.
Taken together, this strongly suggests that a change in state law is not responsible for an increase in youth crime or the increase in overall crime in New York City since 2022.
An exception to the rule
That’s not the whole story, however. Critics highlight the link between the implementation of Raise the Age and gun violence dynamics — asserting that the law led to more kids with guns. Evidence does support this claim.
The share of shooting suspects under 18 has risen since before Raise the Age took effect, even as shootings overall in New York City have fallen to historic lows.
Before parsing the data, it’s important to put shooting totals in a broader context: There have been 652 shootings so far this year and 111,878 major felonies overall, which is to say shootings are fortunately a small fraction of New York City’s current crime problem. Related to this fact: any increase or decrease in shootings, even if large on a percentage basis, is a relatively small number.
Still, New York City shootings in which the suspect is a youth have more than doubled as a percentage of all shootings, from 8% in 2017 to 18% in 2024 and 17% YTD 2025. Given that the rise in youth-involved shootings clashes so dramatically with the overall decline in shootings and substantially outpaces overall youth crime increases, something very specific seems to be happening.
Underscoring this is the fact that the share of shootings by youth is also increasing outside New York City.
What’s going on? Youth arrests for felony criminal possession of a firearm are up from 7% in 2017 to 14% of all gun possession arrests in 2024.
Why might more young people be carrying firearms? A specific provision in the law offers a plausible explanation.
The most common gun charge in New York is criminal possession of a weapon, which applies simply for having a gun, even if it is never shown or used. Under the current law, however, a teenager charged with this felony will have their case automatically transferred to Family Court unless the prosecutor can prove that the youth either caused significant physical injury or explicitly displayed the firearm.
Since gun possession charges rarely involve injuries or open displays of the weapon, these cases most often move to the Family Court. Consequently, young people may feel emboldened to carry guns, knowing that possession typically results in Family Court intervention rather than adult criminal consequences. More gun possessions by youth result in more shootings by youth. A breakdown shows the phenomenon affecting those under 16, as well as 16-, 17- and 18-year-olds.
How the new justice processes are playing out
What is happening in court to cases handled differently under Raise the Age? In 2024, 388 Juvenile Offenders (13-15-year-olds accused of certain serious felony crimes) and Adolescent Offenders (16- or 17-year-olds) were criminally convicted, up from 183 in 2019.
With more serious cases, juvenile justice detention admissions have risen above pre-Raise the Age levels. In New York City, nearly 70% of admissions are for Juvenile Delinquents, with an average length of stay of 15 days. Adolescent Offenders account for approximately 20% of all admissions. Most Adolescent Offender admissions are for pre-trial detention, and the average length of stay for this group is more than 100 days. From 2015 to the present, the average daily population in juvenile detention has more than doubled, with more than 350 people each day in these facilities.
A changing landscape
Crime trends since Raise the Age are inseparable from a broader shift in criminal activity in recent decades. New York City’s age-crime curve no longer shows a sharp spike in criminal activity during the teenage years, peaking in the late teens, and then dropping off in the early 20s. Today, people in their 30s are more likely to commit crimes than juveniles and adolescents. The world has changed, and any changes to Raise the Age should take that into account.