What the data show about homicide and crime declines since the pandemic
There’s been a lot of talk lately about sharp, ongoing homicide declines across the country in 2025, and New York City’s mayor is touting record-low homicide and shooting totals so far this year. What is actually going on? Real progress on urban public safety — with a few caveats.
It’s essential first to understand that cities with more than a million residents experienced the sharpest pandemic-era spikes in homicide, with their murder rates climbing by an average of 52% between 2018 and the 2021 peak. They have since recorded the largest declines, yet most remain above pre-COVID levels.
New York City followed this overall pattern: Its murder rate rose 65% from 2018 to 2021. The reversal has been slower here than elsewhere. Whereas Chicago, Philadelphia and San Diego were back to their 2018 homicide levels by 2024, as of the end of that year, New York City remained 28% above its 2018 baseline. Even so, New York was still the second safest American city with more than a million residents, trailing only San Diego and posting murder rates roughly one-half to one-quarter of those in most peer metros.
Progress continues in 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, New York’s murder rate fell 33% compared to the same period in 2024. And five months into the year, murders (and shootings) are at their lowest number year-to-date than any other year in New York’s history. If this trajectory holds, many large cities, and the nation as a whole, could close 2025 with homicide levels at or below those recorded before the pandemic. That is a big “if,” as the nation is just entering the time of the year — summer — when murders happen most frequently.
Of course, homicides are only one type of violent crime — and a relatively rare one, at that. In New York City, robberies, while trending downward, remain 12.5% higher in the first five months of 2025 than in the same period of 2018. Felony assaults haven’t been this high in 25 years, and after several years of postpandemic increases, have merely plateaued so far in 2025.
The decline in murders is overall good news for the city and the country, yet no single city hall, police department or policy can reasonably claim credit. The same downward trend is visible across the largest metros and in jurisdictions of every size, pointing to a broad postpandemic reversion rather than to any one local initiative.