He needs to school himself on fiscal realities, and fast.
Zohran Mamdani has not been elected yet, but his stunning success in the Democratic primary means that there is a strong possibility he will be inaugurated New York City’s mayor on Jan. 1, 2026.
If that happens, a young activist whose only government experience is a short stint in the state legislature will need to prepare a preliminary budget for fiscal year 2027 for a city with a budget larger than all but four states (NY, California, Texas and Florida) in his first month on the job.
Now is the time for him to show that he is not fiscally naive and that his goals of affordability and better services are not inconsistent with fiscal responsibility. In the coming months, Mamdani can and should take steps to demonstrate to voters that he understands that the job of mayor is to responsibly run a massive and complex government, not lead a political movement.
Specifically, as soon as possible, he should:
- Assemble a fiscal team — a prospective first deputy mayor, director of the Office of Management and Budget and finance commissioner — that is knowledgeable and experienced. Making the names of top candidates public now will show doubters he is serious about the work;
- Reach out to the entities that follow and critique New York City fiscal policies, i.e. the Independent Budget Office and the Citizens Budget Commission, to better understand their areas of expertise and concern and offer to work with them;
- Engage in ongoing dialogues with these groups for himself and his closest advisors, to better understand the fiscal pressures and legal constraints on the city budget including, in particular, the statutory and bond markets’ limitations on the amount the City can borrow. He should show an understanding of the causes of the 1975 fiscal crisis and a commitment to avoid past mistakes.
- Develop a detailed approach and plan to respond to federal budget cuts that are coming soon. As comptroller, Brad Lander has done a lot of analysis on this, which should be helpful.
Taking these steps now will show that he understands the very serious challenges of funding the City’s important functions and will be ready to hit the ground running instead of requiring extensive time for on-the-job training.
Mamdani is a great communicator. He can use this skill and the credibility he clearly has with many New Yorkers to get beyond the slogans of “free this” and “free that” to discuss how he can carefully and realistically begin to achieve his ambitious campaign goals.
Much has been written about why the large-scale expenditures Mamdani touts are not achievable, especially in the face of massive federal cuts to state and city revenues. Indeed, many depend upon the state Legislature approving new taxes or borrowing authority, something that could very likely not happen.
But the redistributionist philosophy that underlies Mamdani’s calls for tax increases on high earners can be readily channeled into good policies that do not risk alienating crucial parts of our tax base or triggering insurmountable opposition from Albany.
For example, instead of trying to allow everyone to ride buses for free, including those who can afford to pay, he could reform the Fair Fares program, which halves fares for low-income riders, to expand eligibility for that program to a higher income level (as the current Adams administration plans) and/or establish an income level below which fares will be free. This will be much less costly than free for all, won’t subsidize riders who don’t need it and will avoid distorted travel routes and overcrowding that would hurt all riders.
Another way to derive more revenue from higher-income people and entities is to eliminate unnecessary tax credits and incentives. To name just one example, the film production tax credit costs the state $700 million a year. Mamdani could work with the governor and state legislature to reform and/or eliminate tax incentives that are not cost effective and return the savings derived from NYC-based operations to the City.
And then there is the property tax, which privileges single-family homes and co-ops over the rental apartment buildings that house two-thirds of New York City residents. It is well past time to rectify this economic injustice. Andrew Cuomo has said he would try to impose a 2% per year cap on the growth of homeowner property taxes, which would make it even more difficult to achieve overall reform. Mamdani said in his answers to a Citizens Budget Commission questionnaire that he is in favor of reforming the property tax system; let’s hear him articulate and explain why and how he plans to make that happen.
Finally, Mamdani can use his appeal to working- and middle-class voters to reach out and work with public employee unions to identify and share savings from more efficient workforce practices. On Derek Thompson’s podcast, he talked about how big of a problem it is that public sector projects are expensive and take so long. Now he should identify specific areas where he wants to find savings.
It is important that our very possible next mayor immediately dig into preparing for the job and be expected to answer questions about how he will address substantial budget shortfalls without risking basic services. He needs to recognize and tell the public that, short of implementing grandiose new programs on day one, there are feasible ways he can improve affordability and provide need-based services.
The next six months will be a test to see whether Mamdani can earn the confidence of those who didn’t vote for him in the primary by seeking out and listening to experienced advisors and preparing for a serious and intense job that will require making smart choices. All New Yorkers and the future of the city are depending on it.